The Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes showed that policymakers remained concerned about persistent inflation and the possibility that further rate increases could be required if price pressures fail to ease. Several officials judged that financial conditions may not have been restrictive enough, while others noted that tighter market conditions were already contributing to the Fed’s efforts to slow demand. A small group of policymakers who supported raising rates at the July meeting believed an immediate hike could have reduced the need for larger increases later. Officials generally viewed inflation risks as tilted to the upside, although some said financial markets were already doing part of the tightening work. Importantly, the meeting took place before subsequent data showed cooler employment and inflation, meaning the discussion may overstate the degree of tightening currently expected by markets.

US stock futures edged higher on Thursday after posting a modest rebound in the previous session, as a sharp decline in Treasury yields helped improve investor sentiment. In regular trading on Wednesday, the Dow and S&P 500 rose 0.22% and 0.21%, respectively, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.16%, with all three benchmarks snapping a three-day losing streak. The consumer discretionary, materials and consumer staples sectors outperformed the broader market, while industrial, technology and financial stocks lagged. Yields on longer-dated US Treasurys pulled back from multi-year highs after the government announced plans to more than double repurchases of 10-, 20- and 30-year debt over the coming months. The move came after the 30-year Treasury yield surged to its highest level since 2007 earlier this week. Investors now turn their attention to retail giant Walmart’s earnings later in the global day, along with the latest weekly jobless claims data.

Crude oil held near $86 per barrel on Thursday after gaining more than 3% so far this week, supported by heightened uncertainty in the Middle East as the US and Iran remain at an impasse. The two sides are also embroiled in a confrontation over the Strait of Hormuz, although President Donald Trump said oil continues to flow through the waterway while adding that he would be open to resuming talks with Tehran “at some point.” Meanwhile, the UAE announced a suspension of financial and economic transactions with Iran after accusing Tehran of launching ballistic missiles at its territory, adding to economic pressure on the Islamic Republic. Despite the elevated risks, Gulf producers have continued transporting significant volumes of crude through alternative routes and discreet shipments. In the US, EIA data showed crude inventories increased by 4.4 million barrels last week, while distillate stocks declined by 1.5 million barrels to their lowest level in more than a month.

Gold prices rose to $4,480 per ounce on Wednesday, the highest since early June, tracking the rally for long-dated US Treasuries after the Treasury Department doubled the buyback of notes and bonds in the upcoming financial quarter. It marked another effort by Washington to contain soaring yields in the longer portion of the curve, following Secretary Bessent's call for higher limits on the Federal Reserve's FIMA facility. Lower borrowing costs reduce the opportunity cost for markets to hold precious metals, which carry no coupons. On top of that, the initial increase in dollar liquidity due to the measures also aid gold prices. Meanwhile, minutes of the Federal Reserve's rate-setting meeting confirmed that a portion of policymakers argued that raising rates this year could prevent sharper inflationary pressure later on.

Soybeans rose to around $12.20 per bushel, the highest level since the more than two-year peak of $12.50 reached on July 24, supported by growing concerns over the condition of the US Midwest crop. Recent field assessments pointed to below-average soybean pod counts in Indiana and Nebraska, while excessive rainfall in parts of the region has raised further doubts about potential yields. The USDA has also recently reduced its crop estimates and lowered condition ratings, adding to supply concerns. Demand prospects are providing additional support, particularly from China. The USDA confirmed a sale of 136,000 metric tons of US soybeans to China for delivery during the 2026/27 season, while traders reported that Chinese buyers have recently booked more than 7 million tons. Strong domestic demand is also reinforcing the positive outlook, with US soybean processing in July increasing 10.7% from a year earlier.

US natural gas prices climbed above $2.80 per million British thermal units, reaching their highest level since July 24, as forecasts pointed to hotter weather across much of the country. Short-term temperature outlooks have turned more bullish, with Houston temperatures expected to average around 100°F (38°C) from August 20 to 23. Also, warmer-than-normal conditions are forecast through early September. However, abundant supply remains a key constraint on further gains. Lower-48 production averaged around 111.5 billion cubic feet per day so far in August, above July’s monthly record of 110.7 bcfd. Robust output and relatively mild spring weather have kept inventories above the five-year average since March, despite persistent summer heat. Meanwhile, gas flows to the nine major US LNG export facilities averaged 17.2 bcfd in August, unchanged from July and just below June’s record.